World coffee production for 2021/22 is forecast down 11 million bags from the previous year to 164.8 million, according to the United States Department of Agriculture Foreign Agricultural Service (USDA FAS) Coffee: World Markets and Trade June 2021 report.
USDA FAS says this is due primarily to Brazil’s combined effect of Arabica trees entering the off‐year of the biennial production cycle and a weather‐related shortfall. As a result of lower output, USDA FAS expects global ending inventories are expected to drop 7.9 million bags to 32 million.
It expects world coffee bean exports to be down 4.8 million bags to 115.5 million. World coffee production for 2020/21 is revised up 300,000 bags from the Coffee: World Markets and Trade December 2020 estimate to 175.8 million.
Brazil is up two million bags to 69.9 million, largely due to updated data for Arabica output. Uganda is revised 1.2 million bags higher to six million largely due to increased area. Peru is lowered 1.1 million bags to 3.4 million on updated area and yield data. Cote d’Ivoire is reduced 700,000 bags to 1.1 million on lower yields. USDA FAS has raised world bean exports 2.8 million bags to 120.3 million.
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